Russia Policy Monitor No. 2745

RUSSIA EXTENDS DIESEL EXPORTS BAN...
Late last month, Russia extended its ban on diesel exports for fuel producers until October 31st. The government press release stated that the decision seeks to "maintain stability in the domestic fuel market." Russia imposed diesel export restrictions because the oil and gas industry has been rocked by Ukrainian strikes against oil refineries, which have sparked surging fuel prices and severe shortages. Ukraine's military reported recently that it has knocked out over 45 percent of Russian refining capacity. (The Moscow Times, September 30, 2026)

...BUT STILL BARTERS WITH THE WHITE HOUSE
On October 9th, President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin ahead of planned peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. In their phone conversation, the two leaders agreed to a new deal under which Russia would surge 4.8 million tons of diesel to the global market – including "immediately" supplying 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States. In the aftermath of the call, the U.S. Treasury Department announced via social media that the U.S. was "immediately issuing a temporary general license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market." (Politico, October 9, 2026; The Hill, October 15, 2026)

[EDITORS' NOTE: The sudden agreement, which has caused consternation in many quarters, reflects the Trump administration's attempt to ameliorate the price of diesel fuel – a key concern in rural America – ahead of November’s midterm elections, which are shaping up to be difficult for the Republican party. However, analysts have noted that Russia's commitment to the U.S., even if fulfilled, won't bring down domestic diesel prices in any appreciable way, since the near-term infusion of 300,000 tons of Russian diesel accounts for less than 5% of U.S. domestic demand.]

PUTIN PREPS DOOMSDAY BUNKER
An investigative report by the Sunday Times has revealed that, since 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense has been modernizing its Soviet-era nuclear command and control bunker. The bunker known as Facility 1335 is located over 1,000ft beneath Kosvinsky Kamen Mountain in the heart of the Ural Mountain Range, protecting it from U.S. bunker buster bombs. The facility is designed as a "Dead Hand" system that ensures Russia can launch a retaliatory nuclear strike in the event all of its leadership is wiped out or loses control in the event of a nuclear conflict. (The Sunday Times, September 29, 2026)

RYBAR REELED IN
Earlier this month, security forces in Montenegro detained Mikhail Zvinchuk, founder of the influential Russian military blog Rybar, together with his wife and three staffers of the Telegram channel. A day before his arrest, Zvinchuk had bragged brazenly about slipping past a Montenegrin border guard despite being under EU and UK sanctions for his role in Russia's hybrid warfare campaign against Europe. Authorities found "sophisticated digital equipment, drones, and electronic devices" in the possession of Zvinchuk and his team. While the Montenegrin government has not commented on what charges the Rybar members were detained under, Prime Minister Milojko Spaijc stressed his government's commitment to resisting Russian efforts to sabotage its European trajectory. In 2024, the U.S. State Department announced a $10 million reward for information on Rybar staffers, citing alleged interference in the 2024 U.S. elections. Montenegro subsequently expelled Zvinchuk and his team on national security grounds. (Meduza, October 9, 2026)

PLAGUE IN THE RUSSIAN FAR EAST?
Following the death of a worker at a plague research lab in Irkutsk of "unknown" causes, speculation has run rampant about the potential for a possible outbreak of the pneumonic plague. To date, Russian health officials have not disclosed the pathogen that caused the acute respiratory illness that killed the woman. Russia also claims that it has done thorough contact tracing and has 100% of the casualty's contacts under monitoring. The WHO likewise claims that it doesn't know the "causative agent" in the woman's sudden illness. Although the WHO says that it is in contact with Russian officials, Russia has not been transparent with the international community regarding the details of the situation. (Associated PRess, October 7, 2026)

UKRAINE WAR EXTENDS TO DATA CENTERS
In retaliation for Russian strikes on Ukrainian data centers beginning in late September, Ukraine attacked two data centers owned by Russian tech giant Yandex in early November. Kyiv claims that it used Firepoint's FP-1 one-way attack drone to set fires to the facilities. The first strike shut down Yandex's data center hub in Sasovo, Russia, which holds two of the three supercomputers the company uses for AI development. The second resulted in service interruptions for Yandex Cloud and third-party products reliant on Yandex's services. The consecutive strikes led Yandex's share price to fall 4% on the Moscow stock exchange. Yandex's CEO has warned that while the current outages are manageable, subsequent attacks could cause serious issues for the company. (Reuters, October 9, 2026)

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