Russia Policy Monitor No. 2718

MOSCOW WEAVES A WEB OF INFLUENCE...
The Kremlin, which has lost a significant portion of its spies in Europe since the beginning of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, is turning to ever-cruder methods to conduct sabotage on the continent. Western intelligence sources report that Russian special services are using a network of recruiters and propagandists linked with the former Wagner Group to conduct sabotage operations in Europe. Recruiters are using Telegram and other social networks to target economically vulnerable and marginalized citizens and enlist them. Wagner propagandists, meanwhile, are adapting the lessons learned in "troll factories" in St. Petersburg to create content that appeals to youth prone to radicalization. (Militarnyi, February 16, 2026)

...WITH UNLIKELY OPERATIVES
At the same time, Russia's intelligence services are being linked to a growing number of terrorist attacks across Europe. From petty crime to sabotage and violent acts, these activities are growing more dangerous. In the past year-and-a-half, arson attacks have destroyed over 1000 businesses around Warsaw, as well as an IKEA in Lithuania, while bombings have been carried out at train stations, and packages containing explosives set off in Germany, Poland, and England. Many of these attacks have been linked to an unlikely culprit: a retired taxi driver, Aleksei Kolosovsky, who resides in a Russian village. Upon closer investigation, Kolosovsky appears to be a service provider for sabotage schemes led by Russian intelligence officers. He recruits "common" people, who would attract less attention from the EU countries, as Russians are less welcome and under more surveillance and scrutiny in the EU.

Kolosovsky often recruits young people online of a specific background, commonly Ukrainian teenagers. This, in turn, marks a notable change in Russia's shadow war with the West. These sabotage missions, which were once done by highly skilled professionals, are now being carried out by reckless criminals in need of quick money. (New York Times, February 22, 2026)

RUSSIA'S CASH-FUELED RECRUITMENT
In recent times, Russian army recruitment ads have made a notable shift – from using patriotism to entice eligible candidates to join to a more basic incentive: high signing bonuses. In a recent interview with Meduza's podcast, The Naked Pravda, Janis Kluge German Institute for International and Security Affairs outlined that Russian recruitment bonuses have soared from around 95,000 rubles before August 2024 to 400,000 rubles today. The effects have been notable; Russian officials claim that they are signing 400–500k recruits per year, a figure Kluge believes to be plausible.

The recruitment system is a top-down affair, Kluge details. The federal government sets an annual target, and quotas are assigned to regions. Regions push quotas to municipalities, where governors face consequences if they are not met. The main drive for recruiting is not patriotism but money. Most of the recruits are men in debt, prisoners, those facing legal trouble, and financially vulnerable populations. In some regions, the police receive payments for finding recruits.

War-related spending has also increased, amounting to 5.1% of GDP in 2025, or roughly $137 billion. Recruitment bonuses account for roughly 0.5% of GDP, which is about one-tenth of direct war spending. Regional budgets are under severe strain, with bonuses accounting for up to 10% of the budget in some regions. (Meduza, February 21, 2026)

A CAUSE OF DEATH IN THE NAVALNY CASE, FINALLY
Two years after the death of Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny, the West's suspicions about foul play have been confirmed, with five independent European laboratories publishing a joint report detailing the presence of epibatidine in Navalny's system. Epibatidine is a toxin found in a rare type of South American frog. It was identified via tests carried out in Britain, Sweden, France, Germany, and the Netherlands from biological samples that had been smuggled abroad.

Russia had denied the claims, calling them "necro-propaganda" from the West. Secretary of State Marco Rubio commented on the report, calling it troubling, and claiming there was no reason to doubt its results. Other Western leaders have articulated similar stances on the issue. (Meduza, February 16, 2026)