STRONGER INFLUENCE IN SYRIA
Russia aims to establish a commercial logistics hub in the Russian-leased Syrian Tartous Naval base by the middle of this month, Syrian officials recently told Reuters. Russia will use one port at the base to bring in approximately 250,000 tons of Russian goods per month, with the first shipment of 30,000 tons of grain arriving in mid-July. Russia intends for the port to serve as the end point of a future Novorossiysk-Tartous maritime route. Syria is already heavily reliant on Russian imports; for instance, some 85% of the country's wheat currently comes from Russia. Additionally, Syria has increased its imports of Russian crude oil since the fall of the Assad regime, deepening its dependence on Russian energy. (Reuters, July 9, 2026)
[EDITORS' NOTE: For Moscow, the burgeoning ties with Damascus represent a strategic coup. Conventional wisdom suggested that Russia's long-running support for the Assad regime would leave it at a disadvantage after Assad's ouster at the hands of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in December 2024. Since that time, however, Moscow has adroitly navigated its relationship with the new regime in Damascus. Now, with its planned port, the Putin government is angling to cement its influence through upgraded trade.]
ALL EYES ON THE ARCTIC
Due to Russia's expanding military incursions into Europe and expanding Arctic Russian submarine operations, NATO member states have increased their surveillance of the Arctic region. The UK, for instance, has deployed the HMS Prince of Wales, the Royal Navy's flagship aircraft carrier, to the far north of the Arctic Ocean. The Royal Navy uses a combination of F-35s and onboard sonar and radar to detect Russian drone and submarine threats before they reach their targets. Analysts, however, are concerned that the relatively small size of the Royal Navy may indicate Britain is unprepared to face a concerted Russian threat. (Wall Street Journal, July 10, 2026)
LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR MOBILIZATION
On July 22nd, the Russian State Duma passed a bill permitting citizens with certain criminal records to sign contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense during formal mobilizations. General Victor Goremykin, the Russian Deputy Defense Minister, stated that the bill will increase the number of Russians eligible for military service, thereby facilitating recruitment efforts as Russia struggles to man its war in Ukraine.
The move is potentially significant. According to the Institute for the Study of War, "[t]he Kremlin appears to be setting conditions to announce formal mobilization and potentially declare martial law in Russia in anticipation of civil unrest as mobilization remains highly unpopular within Russian society." It notes, however, that "[m]obilization remains a very personal decision for Putin and is ultimately contingent on Putin's personal perception of the battlefield situation and the Kremlin's stability, and it remains unclear whether Putin will make such a decision in the near future or what his mobilization announcement would look like." (Institute for the Study of War, July 22, 2026)
RUSSIA'S THROW-AWAY SPIES
Two people have been arrested on the Serbia-Hungary border on suspicion of planning bombings in Germany on behalf of Russia. The incident, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports, reflects a new trend, whereby the Kremlin seems to be increasingly relying on such "disposable" foreign agents to conduct espionage, assassinations, arson, and other disruptive acts outside of Russia. To recruit these agents, Russia is said to use opaque hiring practices and to offer quick cash as a lure to involve people in these schemes. (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, July 23, 2026)