May 8, 2026 - AFPC Chairman of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute S. Frederick Starr quoted in The Jerusalem Strategic Tribune. [link]
Russia’s war against Ukraine is not only a brutal violation of sovereignty; it is a direct challenge to the fundamental principle that borders cannot be changed by force. This norm is not abstract; rather, it is the foundation of international stability. If it erodes, the consequences will extend far beyond Ukraine, undermining the security architecture of Europe and encouraging revisionist behavior globally.
For this reason, Russia cannot—and should not—win this war.
The argument is strategic rather than punitive. A Russian victory, or even an ambiguous outcome that can be framed domestically as success, would validate military coercion as an acceptable tool of territorial revision. It would weaken deterrence and embolden further aggression. Conversely, a clear Russian failure would reinforce the credibility of international norms and demonstrate that sustained aggression carries decisive costs.
There is also a historical dimension that is often underappreciated. As S. Frederick Starr argues in “Putin’s Last Rodeo and Beyond,” Russia’s major military defeats have frequently served as catalysts for internal reform. The Crimean War of 1853–1856 exposed deep structural weaknesses in the Russian Empire and led to the “Great Reforms” under Alexander II, including the abolition of serfdom and the modernization of state institutions. Similarly, the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War in 1905 triggered constitutional changes and the establishment of a representative assembly. These episodes suggest a recurring pattern: external failure has often compelled Russia to shift from imperial expansion toward internal modernization.