American Foreign Policy Council

Iran Democracy Monitor No. 250

March 30, 2026 Ella Kinder, Ilan I. Berman
Related Categories: Intelligence and Counterintelligence; Islamic Extremism; Science and Technology; Warfare; Iran; Iraq

IRAQ AND THE IRAN WAR
While Gulf states continue to wrestle with a unified response to Iranian aggression, Iraq presents a different – and potentially more volatile – picture. Iran has for years exerted influence over its western neighbor through the Popular Mobilization Forces, a network of Iranian-backed militias that were formally incorporated into the Iraqi government's military structure back in 2018. Since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began last month, the PMF has carried out roughly 500 attacks inside Iraq, targeting American personnel, Kurdish forces, and European troops. The arrangement provides Tehran with a degree of plausible deniability while its affiliated militias exert pressure on the conflict's periphery.

These militias, for instance, have struck Iraq's national intelligence headquarters, targeted U.S. facilities at Baghdad International Airport, and released drone footage appearing to show an attack on "Camp Victory." Their operations are being carried out with relative impunity, and reflect a growing boldness on the part of the PMF against the backdrop of a perceived U.S. drawdown of its presence in the country. (Jerusalem Post, March 25, 2026)

THE REGIME CLAMPS DOWN ON STARLINK...
When popular protests erupted anew in Iran late last year, regime authorities responded by blacking out the Internet. Western governments initially hoped that the deployment of units of Starlink, the mobile satellite Internet provider, could restore a degree of connectivity to the country. However, the technology proved less effective than expected in the face of regime jamming (reportedly aided by Russian and Chinese technology). Since then, the Islamic Republic has continued to keep the Internet closed, even as authorities have sought to stem what Starlink usage is occuring. They are doing so by arresting multiple individuals on accusations of using the technology to distribute information to overseas organizations, and of participating in activities otherwise considered "hostile." (Iran International, March 26, 2026)

...WHILE PLATFORMING ITS OWN PROPONENTS
Not all Iranians are finding themselves disconnected from the World Wide Web, however. The Iranian regime is reportedly now providing special access to approved users positioned to promote its messages online. It is said to be doing so via "white SIM cards" which circumvent the regime's extensive filters and give users direct access to platforms such as X and Instagram – access which remains blocked for ordinary Iranians. "The regime continues to promote its agenda through whitelisted networks, cultivating media assets at home and abroad," internet monitor NetBlocks has confirmed. (Iran International, March 10, 2026)

IRAN'S OUTSOURCED INTEL
Iran's intelligence apparatus is increasingly outsourcing surveillance and harassment to ordinary people, including teenagers, recruiting them through publicly accessible Telegram channels that offer modest cash payments in exchange for filming targets or gathering information. A new expose in London's Times newspaper outlines the tactic: rather than deploying trained agents, Tehran is now recruiting low-level, deniable proxies at minimal cost. Payments reportedly run around £500 and are transferred via cryptocurrency, attracting individuals who may have no idea how their work will ultimately be used. Security experts describe the model as borrowed from Russian intelligence tradecraft: cheap, deniable, and easily reconstituted if a channel gets shut down. (The Times, March 26, 2026)

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