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U.S.-Turkish Relations In A Tailspin
Articles - August 8, 2018
 

It's official: U.S.-Turkish relations are in a tailspin.

The once-robust ties between Washington and Ankara have frayed considerably in recent years, riven by strategic issues like Turkey's growing strategic proximity to Russia and its cozy relationship with Islamist actors, as well as its increasingly conspiratorial, anti-American political discourse. But what may end up causing a lasting rupture between the two Cold War-era allies is an altogether different — and unexpected — issue: The fate of an American pastor named Andrew Brunson.

 
Defense Technology Monitor - No. 29
Bulletins - May 25, 2018
 

Increasingly, robots on the front lines;
DPRK threat triggers new missile defense focus on planes...;
...and drones;
Turkey's new underwater drone; Understanding EMP threats;
Weaponizing ink

 
A Turkish-American Divorce?
Articles - February 5, 2018
 

The United States "is an enemy country. It is a serious threat to our country's existence, its unity, integrity, present and the future. It is carrying out an open attack, and an undeclared war..."

Those aren't the words of the radicals of the Islamic State, whose "caliphate" has been dismembered by America and its international partners over the past year. Nor are they the views of Iran's ayatollahs, now facing a White House that appears committed to curbing their regime's global menace.

 
The U.S. And Turkey: Past The Point Of No Return?
Articles - February 1, 2018
 

U.S.-Turkish relations have deteriorated for some time. But until recently, no one would have thought that the American and Turkish militaries, closely allied since the 1950s, could end up confronting each other directly. Yet in northern Syria today, that is no longer unthinkable.

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2175
Bulletins - December 18, 2017
 

Russia plans Arctic energy monopoly;
A peace process for Syria?

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2172
Bulletins - December 11, 2017
 

Deepening tensions over RT designation;
A lucrative Mideast arms market


 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 44
Bulletins - September 6, 2017
 

Hamas-Iran ties: Back on track;
ISIS eyes the Islamic Republic;
The blowback from Russia's Syria strategy;
Turkey's troubling new curriculum;
How not to discredit the Islamic State

 
Common Cause Against The Kurds
Articles - August 30, 2017
 

An odd partnership is taking shape in the Middle East, where Iran and Turkey - two countries that have historically been strategic competitors - are suddenly making common cause.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 176
Bulletins - August 14, 2017
 

In Ankara, fears of the Islamic Republic;
Iran expands role in Iraqi security;
An Iran-Latin America coverup;
A looming hydrological crisis;
Iran's clandestine nuclear quest

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 42
Bulletins - August 4, 2017
 

Taking on (some of) Boko Haram;
The Islamic State's fallback plan;
AQAP grows in the shadows;
Turkey's border wall

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 41
Bulletins - July 19, 2017
 

Astana's answer to radicalization;
Europe braces for ISIS returnees;
Turkey draws a red line;
China's social media clampdown

 
Engulfed In The Gulf: Erdogan And The Qatar Crisis
Articles - June 29, 2017
 

The Gulf crisis over Qatar is once again catapulting Turkey into the politics of the Middle East, for which it is woefully unprepared. After a brief attempt at neutrality, Ankara threw in its lot with Doha, condemning the sanctions imposed by a Saudi-led coalition and accelerated its deployment of troops to a new base in Qatar. This decision risks upsetting President Erdogan's tenuous rapprochement with Saudi Arabia, and reflects the continued ideological prism guiding Turkish foreign policy. But it also reflects a concern with regime security. At least in part, Erdogan's embrace of Qatar reflects a belief that the same forces that supported the overthrow of Egypt's Muhammad Morsi welcomed the July 2016 failed coup in Turkey and now seek regime change in Doha. If so, Turkey's stance is unlikely to change, indicating a standoff may in the making.

 
Turkey & Qatar's Support For Extremist Groups
Articles - May 23, 2017
 

President Trump made clear in Sunday's Riyadh speech that America stands by countries willing to fight Islamist extremism. A welcome opportunity to revisit our relationship with two ostensible allies, Turkey and Qatar. Both host significant American military bases and Turkey is a NATO member, yet for too long they have been American partners in name while providing material support to extremist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood and Al-Nusra front. President Trump's serious intent to confront Islamic terrorism means he must redefine the terms of our alliances with Turkey and Qatar. The United States can no longer allow them to have it both ways.

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2119
Bulletins - February 28, 2017
 

A cyber-shakeup in Moscow;
Ukraine's energy woes

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 35
Bulletins - January 18, 2017
 

Egypt's costly counterterrorism policy...;
...faces legislative limites;
Curtains for BH?;
Hamas' evolvng cyber capabilities;
The Taliban take the offensive;
Target: Turkey

 
Turkey's Coup Attempt Has Played Straight Into Erdogan's Hands
Articles - July 20, 2016
 

Back in 2008, at the height of the global economic meltdown, Rahm Emanuel, President-elect Obama's designee for chief of staff, summed up his guiding political philosophy. "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste," he told the Wall Street Journal. "Things that we had postponed for too long, that were long-term, are now immediate and must be dealt with." 

 
Come At The King, You Best Not Miss
Articles - July 19, 2016
 

Machiavelli counseled, "never do an enemy a small injury." Ralph Waldo Emerson rendered the same thought as, "never strike a king unless you are sure you shall kill him." The coup plotters in Turkey can ponder these aphorisms from their cells while they await their potentially grisly fates. 

 
South Asia Security Monitor - No. 384
Bulletins - February 10, 2016
 

Pakistan to buy Turkey's new tank;
Pakistan and Maldives to strengthen ties;
ISIS linked to Bangladeshi terrorist attacks;
Modi considering first Indian national security policy;
Indian PM meets Afghan chief exec;
Bangladesh Minister seeks stronger ties with India 

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 354
Bulletins - December 9, 2015
 

Turkey troops to Baghdad after protests;
Yemen factions agree to peace talks; Governor killed;
U.S. intel reports ISIS not contained;
Saudi Arabia to host Syrian opposition talks;
Libyan Parliaments reach tentative agreement

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 353
Bulletins - December 3, 2015
 

Turkey: No apology for downed Russian plane;
EU and Turkey come to migrant agreement;
IAF attacks Syrian army, Hezbollah;
Four Egyptian police killed in ISIS attack;
U.S. Senators call for 20,000 troops in Iraq and Syria

 
Missile Defense Briefing Report - No. 341
Bulletins - November 30, 2015
 

Escaped blimp may end JLENS program;
Moscow flexes its missile muscles...;
...while Washington focuses on defense;
China augments space warfare arsenal;
Turkey makes a choice

 
Missile Defense Briefing Report - No. 338
Bulletins - August 5, 2015
 

Iranian air defense improvements?;
Russia expands electronic warfare capability;
Defending Israeli airliners;
Russia incorporates blimp-based missile defense radar;
Turkey's indigenous defenses mature;
North Korea improves missiile launch capabilities

 
In Turkey, It's All About The Palace
Articles - August 4, 2015
 

Don’t forget what's really at stake for Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. 

On December 17, 2013, the Financial Crimes and Battle Against Criminal Incomes department of the Istanbul Security Directory detained 47 people, including a number of high-level officials. The sons of the minister of the Interior, the minister of Economy, and the minister of Urban Planning were implicated, as was Erdogan's own son, Bilal, with all three ministers handing in resignations.

 
Not Mr. Popularity
Articles - July 21, 2015
 

As Vladimir Putin's international image continues to decline, his domestic popularity has, paradoxically, reached an all-time high. The most recent poll by the Moscow-based Levada Center reports a staggering 89 percent approval rating for the Russian president, in spite of a stumbling economy, declining living standards, rampant corruption and deepening international isolation. 

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 341
Bulletins - July 1, 2015
 

ISIS imposes fuel blockade;
Bahrain seizes explosives bound for Saudi Arabia;
Libya's Tripoli forces hit ISIS;
Turkey warns U.S. about Kurdish advances in Syria;
Yemeni rebels persist

 

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 340
Bulletins - June 22, 2015
 

U.S. ends support to rival Shia groups in Lebanon;
Opposition wants Erdogan out of coalition talks;
Al Qaeda the "lesser evil" in Syria?';
Militias oppose ISIS in Libya;
More troops to Iraq to fight ISIS;

 

 
Erdogan Isn’t Finished
Articles - June 22, 2015
 

The euphoria to which Turkey’s June 7 election results have given rise calls to mind an oncology ward patient learning that an experimental protocol might slow the advance of her tumor. The elation is warranted in rough proportion to the desperation of the situation. In other words, good news is, like most things, relative.

 
Don't Rejoice Yet: Erdogan Could Still Win
Articles - June 15, 2015
 

For 13 years, the escape routes from Turkey's political haunted-house have been shutting one by one. Suffocation seemed inevitable. The June 7 election, which resulted in the first hung parliament since 1999, cracked open a tiny window in the attic. Turkey's hope is now predicated upon an unlikely scenario: One in which every major political group exits from that window in an orderly fashion, even as the smoke is rising. 

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 339
Bulletins - June 11, 2015
 

Egypt's leader tries to rule as a one-man show after a year in office;
Georgia's leader warns of Russian expansion;
Libyan gains may offer ISIS a base for new attacks;
Turkey's new parliament features four key parties;
Trove seized in Syria opens window on ISIS

 

 

 
Turkey's political earthquake
Articles - June 8, 2015
 

Over the weekend, Turkey experienced something resembling an electoral earthquake, with Sunday's general election yielding an array of unexpected outcomes that suggest a major political reconfiguration lies ahead for the Republic. 

 
Turkey Key To Stopping Flow Of ISIL Recruits
Articles - June 3, 2015
 

In the frenzied discussions now taking place in Washington about how to prevent the Islamic State terrorist group from making further territorial advances in Iraq and Syria, one topic has been conspicuously absent so far. 

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 336
Bulletins - April 15, 2015
 

Erdogan visits Iran;
Amid Yemen crisis, Egypt vows to protect Arab gulf;
Iraqi Kurds to cooperate with Baghdad on combating ISIS;
New domestic security law for Turkey 

 
An Iranian-Turkish Reset
Articles - July 22, 2014
 

Earlier this summer, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani paid a very public two-day visit to a surprising locale: Ankara, Turkey. The June trip — the first of its kind in nearly 20 years — represented a significant evolution of the political ties between Iran and Turkey. 

 
U.S.-Turkey ties in danger: Column
Articles - May 13, 2014
 

 Remember the U.S.-Turkish alliance? Not long ago, President Obama was proclaiming that Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was his favorite Middle Eastern statesman, and one of very few foreign leaders with whom he had forged a "bond of trust." Yet today, ties between Washington and Ankara are unmistakably on the downswing. The culprits are a quartet of issues that cumulatively have soured relations between Washington and Ankara — and which promise to keep the once-vibrant relationship at a low ebb, at least for the foreseeable future.

 
 
Turkey's Tilt East: A deal with China comes as a particularly harsh blow for NATO.
Articles - February 11, 2014
 

For decades, Turkey has served as a stalwart ally of the West and NATO's representative in the Middle East. But the times may be changing, as Turkey's exploration of new political and economic opportunities in Asia calls into question its traditional relationship with the West.

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 304
Bulletins - November 26, 2013
 

Baghdad will allow Kurds to pump oil in Turkey;
Syria's chemical weapons may be destroyed at sea;
Egypt hosts top Russian officials

 
Epitaph For The Turkish Model
Articles - August 22, 2013
 

Last summer, when the so-called “Arab Spring” was in full bloom, the government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey was riding high.

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 290
Bulletins - August 2, 2013
 

Opposition leader assassinated in Tunisia;
Crackdown on Turkish media;
Syrian government takes Homs

 
How Turkey's Leaders Are Exploiting Egypt's Coup
Articles - July 8, 2013
 

If you're reading the American press, you might think that the protests in Turkey have died down. Nothing could be further from the truth. Stranger still, if you are reading the Turkish press, you might conclude that you are in Egypt, because that seems to be the only topic of conversation.

 
World Report What's Behind Turkey's Unrest
Articles - June 4, 2013
 

ISTANBUL – By now, the media coverage of the upheaval in Turkey has been extensive, but certain points have been insufficiently emphasized.

 
Turkey's Kurdish Arithmetic
Articles - May 29, 2013
 

Of all the variables that dictate the fate of nations, demography might just be the most decisive. The pace of populations—how they grow, change and decline—helps shape a country’s political outlook, its internal makeup, and its place in the world. It can also provide useful insights into a nation’s foreign policy priorities.

 
Turkey To America: Step Up In Syria
Articles - May 15, 2013
 

This week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives in Washington for a much publicized state visit. The Turkish leader won't simply be making a courtesy call, however. His U.S. mission is largely aimed at achieving one purpose: goading the Obama administration into taking greater action on Syria.

 
Another Regional War in the Wings
Articles - January 31, 2013
 

In the conflict zone stretching from Syria to Afghanistan lies another war waiting to re-emerge: Nagorno-Karabakh. This dispute is likely to occupy President Obama’s new foreign-policy team whether they want it or not.

Two decades ago the newly independent states of Armenia and Azerbaijan fought a bitter war over this remote area of mountains and valleys. Armenia won the war, but nobody has achieved peace. A fragile ceasefire signed in 1994 remains the only tangible achievement of diplomacy.

 
Anatomy Of A Power Struggle
Articles - December 19, 2012
 
 
Stop Nuzzling New Autocrats In Turkey And Egypt; Start Pushing Freedom And Democracy
Articles - November 1, 2012
 

The next president must discard two longstanding but problematic pillars of U.S. policy in the Middle East and chart a new course that reflects both regional realities and the dynamic changes that are underway there.

For decades, presidents have sought to maintain regional stability by propping up pro-Western autocrats and to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the first step toward addressing broader regional issues.

 
Another Surrender in the War of Ideas
Articles - August 13, 2012
 

It is the most important country in the Muslim world. Its economy is already the 16th-largest on the planet, and—in marked contrast to those of its sluggish neighbors in Europe—continues to grow by leaps and bounds. And its prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was recently ranked the most popular politician in the entire Middle East.

 
Turkey's Misguided Foreign Policy
Articles - August 13, 2012
 

A century ago, President Theodore Roosevelt's "speak softly and carry a big stick" foreign policy enhanced American power and prestige around the world. Today, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan imperils his country's chances of regional preponderance by pursuing a policy of speaking pugnaciously and carrying no stick.

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 262
Bulletins - July 3, 2012
 

Questions remain about Morsi's authority; Turkey contemplates options after Syria downs warplane; Where have all the Kyrgyz children gone; U.S., Israel to hold 'dress rehearsal' for potential military conflict with Iran

 
Turkey’s Iran dilemma
Articles - March 19, 2012
 

Relations between Ankara and Iran had until recently been growing increasingly warm. Expanding trade between the neighbors, including Turkey’s reliance on Iran to meet much of its energy needs, has been a factor -- as has Ankara’s ‘zero problems with neighbors’ foreign policy. However, growing international pressure on Tehran over its nuclear ambitions has been putting strain on ties between Turkey and its neighbor, tensions exacerbated by the two counties’ jockeying for a more prominent regional role in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. As Turkey’s efforts to balance its relations between East and West draw Iranian ire, the benefits of close ties with Tehran are becoming increasingly uncertain.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 105
Bulletins - September 27, 2010
 

 Dissent in the Ranks; Scrambling ot Stop Subsidies; Iran's Anti-Family Bill Fails to Pass Muster; Iran Hearts the AKP