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The Not-So-Definitive Syrian Red Line
Articles - May 21, 2013
 

In January 1950, Secretary of State Dean Acheson gave a speech on U.S. East Asia policy at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. Acheson spoke about the American "defensive perimeter" on the far Pacific Rim, from the Aleutians to the Philippines. Unfortunately, he left South Korea outside of his red line.

 
Turkey To America: Step Up In Syria
Articles - May 15, 2013
 

This week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives in Washington for a much publicized state visit. The Turkish leader won't simply be making a courtesy call, however. His U.S. mission is largely aimed at achieving one purpose: goading the Obama administration into taking greater action on Syria.

 
Obama’s Dim Prospects For Reviving The Russian ‘Reset’
Articles - April 30, 2013
 

President Obama and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, recently set a September date for bilateral discussions. The goal is to mend ties between the U.S. and Russia, badly frayed by the recent passage of tit–for–tat human rights sanctions, and attempt to put the administration's "reset" of relations with the Kremlin back on track. The White House has already suggested disarmament, Iran, North Korea and Syria as the main topics for the talks.

 
Western Military Intervention Is the Answer
Articles - April 29, 2013
 

The civil war in Syria is over two years old with no end in sight. As matters stand, the future holds either continued bloody stalemate or a successor regime dominated by anti-Western radicals. The time has come to force a more favorable decision.

 
Stakes Too High To Ignore Democracy's Retreat
Articles - April 18, 2013
 

Western thinking about freedom and democracy is marked by a set of optimistic assertions, which include the following:

First, the global advance of freedom and democracy marches ever-onward. Second, economic and political freedoms in a particular nation walk hand in hand, each reinforcing the other. Third, the more a society (particularly its middle class) enjoys economic growth and the higher living standards that normally come with it, the more citizens will push for greater political freedom.

 
The Dangers Of Neglecting Central Asia
Articles - April 16, 2013
 

Secretary of State John Kerry made news recently by referring to the venue of the latest nuclear talks with Iran as the fictional country of "Kyrzakhstan." That off-the-cuff comment was a telling indicator of the general lack of concern for Central Asia that prevails in official Washington.

 
The Cyprus-Crisis Culture Clash
Articles - April 8, 2013
 

On the surface, the Cyprus crisis was about money, but actually it was the result of conflicting political cultures: European, Greek Cypriot and Russian. The fissures exposed during the March 2013 crisis will leave a legacy of mistrust and enmity far beyond the eastern Mediterranean island that staged the drama. The underlying problem was that Europe had accepted a non-European entity (Cyprus) into its institutions and then failed to enforce upon it Europe’s standards of financial governance. Russian money became fuel for the catastrophe, but was not itself the cause. Money laundering and bank insolvency are both deplorable but are not the same thing.

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 279
Bulletins - February 26, 2013
 
 
U.S. Universities Must Invest in China Studies
Articles - February 19, 2013
 

On December 14, Richard Baum, distinguished professor of political science at UCLA, renowned expert on Chinese politics, and adviser to presidents, died in Los Angeles. He was among the foremost in an unparalleled generation of Sinologists that was trained during the Mao Era and went on to inform countless Americans about China and its strategic intentions. Ironically, however, even as his contribution to the study of Chinese politics is eulogized around the world, the emphasis on area studies at the American universities that created Professor Baum and his cohort has withered. Today, many of America's best young Sinologists are forgoing academia and instead choosing more lucrative careers in government or the private sector—working for select audiences on specific topics.

 
Cutting The Iran-China Connection
Articles - February 14, 2013
 

Just what will it take to bring Iran’s nuclear ambitions to heel? The past year has seen a dramatic expansion of economic pressure against the Iranian regime by the United States and Europe, all with a single-minded purpose: to ratchet up the costs to Iran of its stubborn atomic endeavor.

 
SYMPOSIUM: The New Cold War?
Articles - December 28, 2012
 

In late October, speaking at the Intrepid Museum in New York, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta delivered a stark warning. The United States, Panetta said, could soon face a mass disruption event of catastrophic proportions, a "cyber Pearl Harbor" of sorts.

 
Anatomy Of A Power Struggle
Articles - December 19, 2012
 
 
Is John Kerry Obama's Best Choice for Secretary of State?
Articles - December 18, 2012
 

The Obama White House is notoriously insular, a quality reflected in its selection process for secretary of state. So far as the country knows, the only two persons that have been seriously considered to be foreign minister of the most important country on earth are Washington insiders who actively campaigned for the job. The qualities desirable—even necessary—to serve the United States well at State have scarcely been mentioned in the controversy over U.N. Ambassador Susan Rice or in the expectation that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry will be the next secretary.

 
Banking Without Borders
Articles - December 14, 2012
 

Money laundering and terrorism financing are global problems that transcend national boundaries, and launderers and terrorists are constantly adapting their techniques to exploit vulnerabilities in the financial system to disguise the movement of funds.

 
Empowering Arab Women
Articles - November 15, 2012
 

“I am with the Uprising of Women in the Arab World,” says a sign that Marwa (from Tunisia) holds in front of her, “because women’s sexuality is considered as a [sic] Taboo, while Sexism, Pedophilia, and Rape are seen as commonsense.”

 
Blacklist The United Arab Emirates
Articles - November 6, 2012
 

The security of many countries is being endangered by the United Arab Emirates, a confederation of seven small states located in the Arabian Peninsula. Usually considered a Western ally, this false friend also serves as a regional financial hub for mob figures, arms dealers, drug traffickers, jihadis, and rogue regimes. The White House and the Financial Action Task Force—set up by the G7 to combat money laundering and terrorism financing—have so far failed to take action to stop this emerging threat.

 
Stop Nuzzling New Autocrats In Turkey And Egypt; Start Pushing Freedom And Democracy
Articles - November 1, 2012
 

The next president must discard two longstanding but problematic pillars of U.S. policy in the Middle East and chart a new course that reflects both regional realities and the dynamic changes that are underway there.

For decades, presidents have sought to maintain regional stability by propping up pro-Western autocrats and to solve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as the first step toward addressing broader regional issues.

 
The Problem of Pakistan
Articles - October 4, 2012
 

The troubling travails of Rimsha Masih, a Christian teenager who lives near Islamabad and is facing blasphemy charges for allegedly burning pages of the Koran to cook, reflects the growing intolerance toward religious minorities that amounts to what one expert calls a “gradual genocide” in Pakistan.

 
AFPC CHINA BRIEF: China's Central Party School: A Primer
Books - August 2012
 

The Central Party School of the Communist Party of China’s Central Committee (CCPS), established in 1933 in Ruijin, Jiangxi and now located in Beijing’s western suburbs, is the most important institution in China’s midcareer official training system. It is China’s premier facility and educational institution for the training of medium and high-ranking Communist Party of China (CPC) cadre from across the country including ministers, provincial Party chiefs and governors. Between 1977 and 2010, over 60,000 officials (including some who are not CPC members) were trained at the CCPS. The CCPS assists cadre from across the country and different ministries and Party organizations to form new and closer relationships, take time from their busy schedules to learn from past experiences, and functions as a policy think-tank and a theoretical research institute for the Politburo Standing Committee, the CPC’s highest policymaking body. Top CPC leaders have always served as CCPS presidents, including Mao Zedong, Liu Shaoqi, Hua Guofeng, Hu Jintao, Zeng Qinghong and now Xi Jinping.

 
Another Surrender in the War of Ideas
Articles - August 13, 2012
 

It is the most important country in the Muslim world. Its economy is already the 16th-largest on the planet, and—in marked contrast to those of its sluggish neighbors in Europe—continues to grow by leaps and bounds. And its prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was recently ranked the most popular politician in the entire Middle East.

 
Of horses and narco-kingdoms
Articles - August 10, 2012
 

Following a 2-year investigation, U.S. prosecutors have submitted a mindboggling 30,000 pages of documentation and 2,000 recorded phone calls that paint an extensive picture of how one of Mexico's most powerful drug-trafficking organizations raises, moves and eventually washes its illicit funds.

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 982
Bulletins - August 8, 2012
 

Media curbs ahead of Party Congress; Japanese jitters over growing PLA power

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 265
Bulletins - August 1, 2012
 

Israel weighs possible attack on Syria's chemical arsenal; U.S. hopes for new military base in Tajikistan...; ...while Russia simply hopes to remain; A way out for Assad; Sectarian violence surges in Iraq

 
US Should Forcefully Encourage Free Elections In Georgia
Articles - July 26, 2012
 

Freedom and democracy don't come easily to a land that's known precious little of it over time. Often, a nation overthrows an authoritarian government and replaces it with a democratically elected one, only to see the new government subvert the rule of law and impose a new authoritarianism.

 
The Threat to Greek Democracy
Articles - July 23, 2012
 

Everyone knows Europe faces the potential for Greek financial collapse, with serious ramifications for the euro zone and its financial institutions. Less discussed is the Greek impact on another key European institution, the less restrictive border regime instituted under the Schengen Treaty, and the danger of failure of constitutional democracy in an EU member state.

 
The U.S. Must Side With Pro-Democracy Activists
Articles - July 14, 2012
 

Recent developments in Egypt, Syria, and elsewhere have convinced skeptics that U.S. human rights promotion in the Middle East causes more harm than good by inciting instability — positioning the Muslim Brotherhood and other anti-Western forces to win elections or otherwise seize power.

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 263
Bulletins - July 13, 2012
 

King Abdullah takes another stab at reform; Egyptian power struggle intensifies; Free Syrian army requests international intervention; The Palestinian Authority's (ongoing) financial crisis

 
Misreading Iran at our peril
Articles - July 13, 2012
 

When it comes to the financial markets, it is a rule of thumb that past success is a poor indicator of future performance. Sadly, it turns out, that's also the case with political science.

Take the latest offering from one of the field's best and brightest. Kenneth N. Waltz, a decorated professor at Columbia University and the University of California at Berkeley, is dean of the "neorealism" school in international relations theory -- a deep thinker whose 1965 book "Man, the State, and War" revolutionized our understanding of how nation-states behave.

 
Why UN Reform Can't Wait
Articles - July 11, 2012
 

It's no secret that the United Nations hasn't lived up to its billing as a champion of human rights and democratic values since its establishment in 1945. All too often, the UN system has aided and abetted some of the world's most odious regimes—and served as a political weapon for those countries against the West. Yet even by these standards, this summer has seen an unprecedented level of rot in the world's most powerful international forum.

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 977
Bulletins - July 6, 2012
 

No U.S. invitation to China for world's largest naval exercise;
PRC and ROC reassert claims to Spratlys to counter Vietnam

 
Reading Pakistan, By The Numbers
Articles - July 6, 2012
 

Is Pakistan an enemy of the United States? For the past two years, the Obama administration has doggedly maintained that the South Asian nation remains a vital American ally, even as it has grappled with what it itself admits is a "complicated" relationship.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 121
Bulletins - July 3, 2012
 

The logic behind the IRGC's expanding empire; Iran struggles with addiction; Iran bolsters naval capabilities...; ...As regional neighbors scramble to adapt; Iran's latest ploy to skirt sanctions

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 975
Bulletins - June 29, 2012
 

Signs point to easing of "one-child" policy;

China launches National Human Rights Action Plan
 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1787
Bulletins - June 29, 2012
 

Rights council resigns en masse;
Former finance minister: economic problems on the horizon

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 261
Bulletins - June 27, 2012
 

The failed UN Syria mission; The house of Saud names a new crown prince; Palestinian anti-corruption court: a step forward or a political ploy?; Is the Assad regime beginning to crack?

 
The Vatican Bank: The Most Secret Bank In The World
Articles - June 27, 2012
 

Italian prosecutors have now detained the former head of the Vatican’s bank after searching his home and former office for suspected criminal behavior. Catholics and followers of the Holy See will be disappointed to learn that the Vatican’s bank appears to be embroiled in yet another financial scandal.

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1786
Bulletins - June 26, 2012
 

Opposition parties unite to survive;
Magnitsky Act stalls in committee

 
The Muslim Brotherhood’s Egyptian sweep
Articles - June 26, 2012
 

For all their ideological fervor, revolutions in practice tend to be fairly predictable affairs. More often than not, when the initial groundswell of popular discontent recedes, the best-organized and most ideologically cohesive political factions assume power and proceed to run the show according to their own preferences.

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 974
Bulletins - June 25, 2012
 

Taiwan opposition seeks new leader;
Russia and China celebrate relations "at an all time high"

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 973
Bulletins - June 22, 2012
 

China to add Marine Surveillance ships amidst maritime disputes;
Environment Ministry laments poor water quality

 
Eurasia Security Watch - No. 260
Bulletins - June 22, 2012
 

 Abbas' new ally; China's growing ties with Uzbekistan and other central Asian nations; Israel excluded from U.S. counterterrorism forum; The dissolution of Egypt's lower house; Erdogan: a modern-day sultan?

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1785
Bulletins - June 21, 2012
 

Ahead of nuclear parlay, Putin and Ahmadinejad find common cause;
Battle lines drawn between Kremlin, opposition forces

 
Asian Money Launderers Sent Region-Wide Warning
Articles - June 21, 2012
 

Law enforcement officials in China, Taiwan, Myanmar, Thailand and the Philippines have launched a blitzkrieg targeting money launderers who have been swindling and blackmailing average citizens throughout Asia to the tune of millions of dollars.

 
Suu Kyi's Timely Reminder
Articles - June 20, 2012
 

Delivering her Nobel Lecture after a 21-year delay, Burma’s Aung San Suu Kyi offered a timely reminder from the front lines of struggle.

“To be forgotten,” she said in her October 16th address in Oslo, “… is to die a little. It is to lose some of the links that anchor us to the rest of humanity. When I met Burmese migrant workers and refugees during my recent visit to Thailand, many cried out, ‘Don’t forget us!’ They meant: ‘Don’t forget our plight, don’t forget to do what you can to help us, don’t forget we also belong to your world.’

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 120
Bulletins - June 19, 2012
 

 Rezaee Rising?; The IRGC takes aim at churches; Iran builds new regional energy bonds; Iranian opposition condemns regime support for Syria; Cost of food staples surges

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 972
Bulletins - June 18, 2012
 

Taiwan opposition selects new leader;

Russia and China celebrate relations "at an all time high"
 
The Kremlin's Iran Problem
Articles - June 18, 2012
 

On Monday and Tuesday, all eyes will be on Russia as it hosts the third round in the troubled international negotiations now under way between Iran and the West over the former's nuclear program.

 
 
The Legacy of Bernard Lewis
Articles - June 17, 2012
 

Bernard Lewis’ new book, Notes on a Century: Reflections of a Middle East Historian, written at the age of 95, is essentially his autobiography.  Since he is, above all, a scholar, much of his life has been thinking and writing.  Not surprisingly, the book recounts the gestational process of a number of his major works.  Lewis is the author of more than 30 books.  This leads him to wonder, in 100 years, which of his works will be remembered?  I venture to say that it will not be this one, nor does he mean it to be.  This is a breezy, episodic, conversational book of reflections, aperçus, anecdotes, and some very sharp observations.  It is what is called a “good read.”  It is not particularly profound or deep.  It only glancingly refers to ideas that Lewis has developed at greater length in his earlier works. He refers to them rather than repeating them, and places their development in the context of his long life.

 
Egypt Moves Closer To Military Rule, Civil War, Or Both
Articles - June 15, 2012
 

In the sixteen months since the ouster of its long-serving strongman, Hosni Mubarak, one question has stood at the heart of the turbulent political debate taking place in Egypt: who will ultimately end up in charge?

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 1784
Bulletins - June 14, 2012
 
Russian Orthodox Church backs the Syrian status quo;
The Duma take a stand against new assembly law - albeit briefly