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Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 12
Bulletins - October 12, 2018
 

Iran's clandestine oil trade;
An exodus of Afghans;
A media blackout on "sex tourism";
The high price of civil protest

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 56
Bulletins - October 8, 2018
 

The Islamic State's second act;
Afghanistan's parallel government;
The persistence of "pay to slay";
Iran in the cross-hairs;
The Kurdish prisoners dilemma;

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 55
Bulletins - September 17, 2018
 

In India, melding religion and vocation;
Stories from Darzab;
The Taliban reverts to type...
;...as Beijing wades into the Afghan fray

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2247
Bulletins - August 31, 2018
 

New plans for naval modernization;
The end of the Russo-Israeli entente

 
Iran Strategy Brief No. 11: Iran's Complicated Post-JCPOA Nuclear Path
Policy Papers - August 20, 2018
 

In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s May 8th decision to formally end America’s participation in the 2015 nuclear deal known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), there has been significant speculation about potential responses on the part of the Iranian leadership. Iranian officials have threatened a range of possible consequences stemming from the U.S. decision, up to and including a resumption of nuclear development and associated processes by their government...

 
Can Iran Wait Out Trump's Pressure Campaign?
Articles - August 8, 2018
 

U.S. foreign policy toward Iran is approaching a "back to the future" moment, with the Trump White House resurrecting the strategy pursued by President George W. Bush (and, for a while, President Barack Obama) of pressuring Iran economically into abandoning its nuclear pursuits.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 188
Bulletins - July 31, 2018
 

Iran's unfolding currency crisis...;
...leaves Rouhani scrambling to stabilize the national economy;
Crisis and opportunity for Iran's "reformist" camp;
A mandate to stay in Syria;
Toward an "Arab NATO"

 
Fight Against Terror Entering A New Phase, Still Just As Vital
Articles - July 26, 2018
 

The war on terror now ranks as America's longest-running war. Yet, increasingly, the fight against terrorism has receded from the headlines, supplanted by acrimonious domestic politics and flashpoints like North Korea's nuclear program and trade disputes with China. Yet the war on terror still rages on — and the battlefield in that fight is changing significantly.

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 53
Bulletins - July 18, 2018
 

Who's in charge in Syria?;
Kyrgyzstan's jihadis;
The Taliban-ISIS war heats up;
Five year on, a brighter Egyptian security picture

 
The Economic Roots Of Iran's Unrest
Articles - July 6, 2018
 

The fresh outbreaks of street protests in Tehran that have taken place in recent days raise the question of whether this will be just a temporary disturbance or a sign of more significant changes to come.

Last Monday, police in Tehran attacked protesters in front of Iran's parliament, and clashes were reported in other cities. These were reportedly the largest street protests since the ones in 2009 and 2012, and follow similar disturbances in late December and early January.

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2227
Bulletins - July 2, 2018
 

Moscow's balancing act in Syria;
A reshuffle in Russia's regions

 
Optimizing America's Outreach Toward Iran
Articles - June 28, 2018
 

America's Iran policy is at a crossroads. In the wake of President Trump's recent decision to abandon the 2015 nuclear deal, his administration has unveiled a new, more muscular approach toward the Islamic Republic. That plan, announced publicly by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on May 21, has garnered extensive scrutiny for its pledge to reimpose economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic for its nuclear and ballistic missile work, and its vow to roll back Iran's extensive influence in Syria.

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2225
Bulletins - June 19, 2018
 

The perennial president;
Britain: a safe haven for Russian "dirty money"

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 187
Bulletins - June 11, 2018
 

Still more environmental woes...;
...prompt a predictable regime response;
Iran and Hezbollah as a hedge;
Iran's Baha'i under fire;
An Iranian hand in Palestinian turmoil;
Losing Iraq

 
When It Comes To Iran, America Is Still Running The Show
Articles - June 6, 2018
 

When President Trump announced last month that America would leave the global nuclear deal with Iran and reimpose U.S. sanctions, Europe's leaders vowed to create financial mechanisms that would enable their firms to do business with Tehran and protect them from U.S. financial retaliation.

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 52
Bulletins - May 31, 2018
 

Counterterrorism and the digital dilemma;
Cairo's new counterterrorism structure;
How al-shabaab indoctrinates;

 
New Report: Iran's Influence In Syria Far Broader Than Commonly Understood
Articles - May 31, 2018
 

Just how deep does Iran's influence run in Syria? After a half decade of overt and covert Iranian military assistance to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, the Iranian regime is widely understood to be playing a key role in the Syrian theater. But, according to a new study from the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, an Istanbul-based think tank focused on the Syrian conflict, this backing is far broader than commonly understood, and encompasses not just military assistance but also an extensive web of economic and political contacts that are designed to give the Iranian regime a lasting presence on the territory of its top regional ally.

 
New Report: Iran
Articles - May 31, 2018
 

Global outrage over last month’s peak to the so-called Great March of Return on the Gaza-Israel border was instant and understandable. Over 50 people died and hundreds more were injured on a single day. What happened was as viscerally unpleasant as civil strife gets. It was brutal.

 
The Islamic State Attacks Indonesia - And Its 'Middle Way'
Articles - May 30, 2018
 

Earlier this month, after experiencing a long hiatus from violent extremism, Indonesia succumbed anew to Islamist terrorism when a family of suicide bombers struck three different churches in the country's second-largest city, Surabaya. The coordinated attacks during Sunday services on May 13 killed at least 12. The following day, another family of extremists attacked Surabaya's police headquarters, wounding 10. The Islamic State immediately claimed responsibility for both attacks.

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 51
Bulletins - May 23, 2018
 

Pakistan's "University of Jihad";
Egypt attempts a new strategy in the Sinai;
Saudi Arabia seizes the moment against the MB...;
...and makes a move toward religious pluralism



 
Scrapping Iran Deal Provides A Trump Card With North Korea
Articles - May 16, 2018
 

The political left is aghast over President Donald Trump's decision last week to abrogate the Iran nuclear deal. Among proponents of the 2015 agreement with Iran's ayatollahs engineered by the Obama White House, Trump's pullout was condemned as ill-advised for a host of reasons, not least because it complicates America's planned negotiations with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. After all, these critics argue, why would Pyongyang trust a Washington that doesn't honor its international obligations?

 
The End Of The JCPOA Era
Articles - May 10, 2018
 

It's official: the Iran nuclear deal is dead.

On May 8th, in a nationally televised address, President Trump announced that his administration was withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). By doing so, the White House has effectively killed the signature foreign policy achievement of the Obama era.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 185
Bulletins - May 9, 2018
 

U.S. policy: Back to sanctions...;
...and plans for a broader strategy;
Meanwhile in Iran, official anger...;
...and grassroots ferment

 
America Needs A New Iran Deal
Articles - May 3, 2018
 

On Monday, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu dramatically unveiled records detailing "Project Amad," Iran's "comprehensive program to design, build, and test nuclear weapons." The information was taken from 100,000 pages of documents Israel had secretly obtained in January from a warehouse in Tehran. The records do not deal with ongoing aspects of Iran's nuclear program - Project Amad was suspended in 2003 - but they do show that Tehran had been lying about the program's peaceful intent. They also reveal how far Iran has gotten in planning and development of nuclear weapons, and how quickly such a program could be reconstituted - assuming work is not already continuing under the weak verification regime of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

 
The Iran Deal Is Dead. Now What?
Articles - April 24, 2018
 

These days, it's increasingly clear that the Iran nuclear deal is on life support.

For much of the past year, opinion within the Trump administration has been more or less evenly divided between those who support preserving the 2015 agreement (formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) with some modifications, and those - including the president himself - who advocate its outright annulment. But no longer. Recent staffing changes at the upper echelons of the administration have swung the pendulum decisively in favor of Donald Trump "nixing" the agreement at the earliest possible opportunity.

 
The Other Iranian Threat
Articles - April 17, 2018
 

Whatever happened to the Iranian cyberthreat? Not all that long ago, American officials were preoccupied with the growing disruptive capabilities that the Islamic Republic had begun to demonstrate on the World-Wide Web. That, however, was before the start of negotiations over Iran's atomic program in 2013. Those talks allowed Iran's cyber activities to recede from public view, as policymakers in Washington focused their attention on nuclear diplomacy with Tehran, while Iranian hackers temporarily became more cautious in their choice of targets and the visibility of their attacks. More recently, worries about Iran's cyber capabilities have taken a back seat to concerns regarding Iran's growing conventional military might, and its mounting regional adventurism in places like Syria and Yemen.

 
China Reform Monitor - No. 1322
Bulletins - April 16, 2018
 

Chinese household debt grows;
Congress moves to limit Chinese influence in academia

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2206
Bulletins - April 12, 2018
 

A new Kremlin counterterrorism sweep;
New details in Skripal case point to Russia

 
Hamas Attacks Israel - And The World Condemns Israel
Articles - April 11, 2018
 

The world "should wait for our great move," said a top Hamas leader, speaking to Palestinian protestors during violent clashes with Israeli forces along the Gaza border, "when we breach the borders and pray at al Aqsa."

With hundreds around him chanting, "We are going to Jerusalem, millions of martyrs," and with 20,000 Palestinians protesting along the border - some burning tires, others throwing Molotov cocktails and rocks - Yahya Sinwar declared during April protests that Hamas was "following in the path of martyr Yasser Arafat in resisting the enemy" and "if we explode we will explode in [Israel's] face."

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 184
Bulletins - April 6, 2018
 

The Islamic Republic's war on women;
A kinder, gentler gulf posture?;
Mismanagement adds to Iran's water woes;
A different kind of insurance policy;
Iran's increasingly rickety rial

 
America Has A Plan To Dismantle The Iran Deal; Now It Needs One For The Aftermath
Articles - March 27, 2018
 

With President Trump's pick of John Bolton as National Security Advisor raising the chances of a U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, Washington must be ready in its aftermath to pursue a bold, broad, and effective strategy to restrain Tehran's nuclear dreams and hegemonic ambitions.

 
Russia Reform Monitor - No. 2195
Bulletins - March 12, 2018
 

Russia's troublesome Taliban ties;
A new focus on nuclear competition

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 183
Bulletins - March 2, 2018
 

Iran's persistent headscarf protests;
A public rebuke to Rouhani;
The Islamic Republic's complicated approach to cryptocurrency;
Soleimani's star rises

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 50
Bulletins - February 26, 2018
 

Responding to the PA's terrorism racket;
Pakistan's tactical counterterrorism;
How Israel helped thwart an ISIS airline plot;
Squeezed in Iraq and Syria, ISIS heads east

 
Nervous In North Africa
Articles - February 22, 2018
 

Officials in Morocco are apprehensive. "Africa is approaching a dangerous moment," one of the Kingdom's most senior political figures told me recently in Rabat. His bleak assessment, which I heard in virtually every meeting during my recent visit to the country, stems from what are essentially two factors.

 
Rocketing Toward War?
Articles - February 20, 2018
 

Military skirmishes and escalating threats between Iran and Israel of late are raising the risks of a catastrophic regional war, prompting questions about what the United States should do to prevent it.

To date, President Donald Trump has focused more attention on defeating the Islamic State group in Syria than on preventing Iran from filling the resulting void with its own military and proxy forces and, in the process, further implanting itself in Syria as part of its quest for a land corridor all the way to the Mediterranean Sea.

 
Iran's Uprising Pits The Country's Old Rulers Against Its Young Citizens
Articles - February 9, 2018
 

Last month, with mass protests underway on the streets of Tehran and other cities, one of Iran's most senior clerics inadvertently sparked an altogether different sort of international incident.

On January 8, Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, one of the country's most powerful officials and a potential successor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, traveled to Germany to receive medical treatment amid rumors of failing health. The visit prompted outrage from human-rights activists, and German authorities — under growing pressure from watchdog groups — contemplated bringing charges against Shahroudi for "crimes against humanity" for his role in directing the imprisonment and torture of numerous opponents of the Iranian regime. The sixty-nine-year-old jurist ultimately decided to flee the Federal Republic in order to avoid the fallout.

 
A Turkish-American Divorce?
Articles - February 5, 2018
 

The United States "is an enemy country. It is a serious threat to our country's existence, its unity, integrity, present and the future. It is carrying out an open attack, and an undeclared war..."

Those aren't the words of the radicals of the Islamic State, whose "caliphate" has been dismembered by America and its international partners over the past year. Nor are they the views of Iran's ayatollahs, now facing a White House that appears committed to curbing their regime's global menace.

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 182
Bulletins - February 5, 2018
 

The question of Khamenei's legitimacy;
Using Moscow to hedge against Washington;
Iraq's militias look to Iran

 

 
A New Approach To Iran
Articles - January 17, 2018
 

The recent protests in Iran may be petering out, but the White House is ramping up its response to them. Last week, in tandem with his most recent decision to prolong the controversial 2015 Iran nuclear deal for another three months, President Trump opened a new front against the Islamic Republic by levying fresh human rights sanctions on a number of key regime figures and institutions.

 
What To Watch For In Iran's Turmoil
Articles - January 8, 2018
 

Will Iran's pro-democracy protests last? As the uprisings that have unexpectedly swept across the Islamic Republic approach their second full week, that's the question on the mind of policymakers in Washington.

 
How Washington Can Influence The Outcome Of Protests In Iran
Articles - January 4, 2018
 

These are heady days in Iran. For more than a week now, thousands of Iranians have rallied publicly against their government, demanding accountability, transparency and an end to the repressive clerical status quo. In the process, they have presented Iran's radical theocratic regime with one of the most profound challenges to its authority since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.

 
How To Support The Second 'Persian Spring'
Articles - January 2, 2018
 

Could we see a new Iranian revolution in 2018? For nearly a week now, tens of thousands of Iranians have taken to the streets in various cities throughout the Islamic Republic in the largest mass demonstrations of their kind in nearly a decade. In the process, they have raised the tantalizing possibility that we might in fact be witnessing a second "Persian Spring."

 
World Almanac of Islamism 2017
Books - December 2017
 

Now in its third edition, The World Almanac of Islamism is the first comprehensive reference work to detail the current activities of radical Islamist movements worldwide. The contributions, written by subject expert, provide up-to-date assessments on the contemporary Islamist threat in all countries and regions where it exists. Each country study will include valuable metrics for gauging the advance or decline of Islamism. In places where Islamists are not in power, these include year-on-year comparisons of the number of terrorist attacks that have taken place, the level of popular support being received by radical religious organizations and political parties, and applicable government responses to these trends, if any. In places where they are in power, metrics encompass relevant changes to domestic human rights practices and social conditions, foreign policy rhetoric and action, and the overall stability of the state.


 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 181
Bulletins - December 28, 2017
 

Iran's increasingly blue-water navy;
China expanses its economic footprint in Iran;
Exporting the Basij model;
Iranian cultural censorship goes global

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 48
Bulletins - December 7, 2017
 

Boko Haram: Down, but not out;
Dutch fears of female Jihadism;
The Afghan battleground;
Europe's new worry: Balkan radicalization;
Testing Saudi Arabia's new approach

 
Iran Democracy Monitor - No. 180
Bulletins - November 27, 2017
 

Iran's Afghan "Volunteers";
Khatami under fire...;
...while Larijani jockeys for position;
Iran continues its illicit procurement;
A helping hand from Moscow

 
Iran's Imperial Project
Articles - November 21, 2017
 

Iran is on the march in the Middle East.

Over the past year, a steady drumbeat of news reports from the Persian Gulf, intelligence assessments regarding Syria's civil war, and firsthand accounts out of Iraq, Lebanon and beyond has pointed to an inescapable conclusion: Iran is erecting a new empire in the region.

 
The Russian War On Terror
Articles - November 3, 2017
 

Which country ranks as the largest source of foreign fighters for the Islamic State's "caliphate" in Syria and Iraq?

That dubious distinction doesn't belong to a Middle Eastern state, despite the fact that countries such as Saudi Arabia have historically been major contributors of radicals to the Islamic State's ranks. Nor is it a North African nation, even though Tunisia had previously served as the preeminent supplier of fighters for the Syrian front.

 
Global Islamism Monitor - No. 46
Bulletins - October 30, 2017
 

Ireland on Alert;
Target: America;
The Islamist timber trade;
The persistence of Palestinian "resistance";
Russia's role in the foreign fighter program