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| Iran: Much More Than Nukes |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, International Business Tribune, June 13, 2013 |
Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Martin Dempsey's acknowledgment this week that Iran "is a threat to U.S. national security in many ways," and not just in its pursuit of nuclear weapons, is both welcome and timely. |
| China Draws A Line In The Ocean |
| By Jeff M. Smith, Washington Times, June 13, 2013 |
Chinese Senior Col. Zhou Bo made headlines at the annual Shangri La Dialogue in Singapore, held from May 31 to June 2, when he announced that Chinese ships have been conducting reconnaissance operations in America’s Exclusive Economic Zone. It wasn’t exactly a surprise: Buried in its 2013 Report on Chinese Military Power was a statement by the Pentagon that Chinese ships had begun conducting “naval activities” around Guam and Hawaii. What may have been surprising though, was the response of Adm. Samuel Locklear, the head of U.S. Pacific Command: “They are [conducting exercises in our EEZ], and we encourage their ability to do that.” Why would the United States want the Chinese navy patrolling the waters off Hawaii? |
| Four Myths About Nuclear Deterrence |
| By Peter Huessy, U.S. News & World Report, June 11, 2013 |
Opponents of U.S. nuclear modernization are operating under a slew of false assumptions. That is the message of Major General Garrett Harencak, the top nuclear advisor to the U.S. Air Force's Chief of Staff, who spoke recently to a hundred top military and civilian experts at a seminar in Washington. And it is one that is worth heeding. |
| Iran On Our Back Porch |
| By Ilan Berman, USA Today, June 5, 2013 |
Last week, Argentine state prosecutor Alberto Nisman dropped a bombshell when he issued his long-awaited indictment in the 1994 bombing of the Argentine Israel Mutual Association (AMIA) in Buenos Aires. The 502-page report pins the blame for the attack -- which killed 85 and wounded hundreds more in what experts call Latin America's 9/11 -- squarely on the Islamic Republic of Iran. In doing so, it provides a timely reminder that Iran's radical regime is active in the Western Hemisphere and that its presence here is far broader than is commonly understood. |
| World Report What's Behind Turkey's Unrest |
| By Claire Berlinski, U.S. News & World Report, June 4, 2013 |
ISTANBUL – By now, the media coverage of the upheaval in Turkey has been extensive, but certain points have been insufficiently emphasized. |
| John Kerry’s Palestinian Investment Plan Sidesteps Central Truisms |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, International Business Tribune, May 30, 2013 |
I suspect that I’m like many of you. I want to believe Israeli-Palestinian peace is coming, that the two sides will soon agree to borders, Palestinian terrorists will stop launching rockets from Gaza, and ultra-right Israelis will abandon dreams of absorbing the West Bank into a “Greater Israel.” |
| Turkey's Kurdish Arithmetic |
| By Ilan Berman, Forbes.com, May 29, 2013 |
Of all the variables that dictate the fate of nations, demography might just be the most decisive. The pace of populations—how they grow, change and decline—helps shape a country’s political outlook, its internal makeup, and its place in the world. It can also provide useful insights into a nation’s foreign policy priorities. |
| Obama's Retreat From The War On Terror |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, U.S. News & World Report, May 28, 2013 |
President Obama's counter-terrorism strategy, which he unveiled last week in a high-profile speech at the National Defense University, is less off-base than incomplete, reflecting his effort to limit the scope of the problem and the requirements of the response in ways that will prove inadequate to the challenge. |
| The Not-So-Definitive Syrian Red Line |
| By James Robbins, U.S. News & World Report, May 21, 2013 |
In January 1950, Secretary of State Dean Acheson gave a speech on U.S. East Asia policy at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. Acheson spoke about the American "defensive perimeter" on the far Pacific Rim, from the Aleutians to the Philippines. Unfortunately, he left South Korea outside of his red line. |
| America Plays The 'Weak Horse' In Syria |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, International Business Times, May 16, 2013 |
In his 2010 book, The Strong Horse, Lee Smith counseled that, in the Middle East, what matters in shaping the loyalty of the masses is which "strong horse" - whether a person or a country - can impose its will on others. |
| Turkey To America: Step Up In Syria |
| By Ilan Berman, U.S. News & World Report, May 15, 2013 |
This week, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrives in Washington for a much publicized state visit. The Turkish leader won't simply be making a courtesy call, however. His U.S. mission is largely aimed at achieving one purpose: goading the Obama administration into taking greater action on Syria. |
| Boston Bombing's Russian Roots |
| By Ilan Berman, The Washington Times, May 14, 2013 |
Ever since last month’s bombings at the Boston Marathon, speculation has abounded as to what led the perpetrators — suspected to be ethnic Chechens 26-year-old Tamerlan Tsarnaev and his 19-year-old brother, Dzhokhar — to carry out the most significant act of terrorism on U.S. soil since Sept. 11, 2001. By all accounts, both were largely homegrown radicals who received inspiration, and perhaps even dangerous instruction, from jihadist elements in the United States and abroad. The roots of the Tsarnaevs’ militancy can be traced back at least in part to Russia’s own troubled “war on terrorism” — a struggle that Moscow, more than two decades after the Soviet collapse, is in real danger of losing. |
| Why China Lets North Korea Run Wild |
| By Peter Huessy, U.S. News & World Report, May 7, 2013 |
Although most observers tend to treat them as separate phenomena, there is an intimate connection between North Korea's recent nuclear and long-range missile tests and China's growing push to control the vast oil and gas resources in the South China Sea and the associated sea lanes through which trillions of dollars in commerce travel. |
| Of Syria, Israel, and the United States |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, The Commentator, May 7, 2013 |
Israel's military strikes in Syria leave the interested observer with admiration over Jerusalem's steadfastness, disgust over Washington's continued dithering, and worry over the long-term global implications. |
| Frontier Tension: Is China Provoking India at Disputed Border? |
| By Jeff M. Smith, Defense News, May 6, 2013 |
Amid all the media focus on China’s maritime territorial disputes with Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, the world nearly forgot that China still hosts the world’s largest outstanding land border dispute with the world’s largest democracy, India. |
| Redrawing Syria's Red Line |
| By Ilan Berman, USA Today, May 1, 2013 |
For better or worse, governments tend to be defined by their handling of foreign crises. Weather one well, and you project an image of strong, principled leadership, much like the way Margaret Thatcher's government managed its dispute with Argentina over the Falkland Islands. Dither or delay, and you telegraph an air of provocative weakness. (Think Jimmy Carter and Iran.) |
| Obama’s Dim Prospects For Reviving The Russian ‘Reset’ |
| By Heather Stetten, U.S. News & World Report, April 30, 2013 |
President Obama and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, recently set a September date for bilateral discussions. The goal is to mend ties between the U.S. and Russia, badly frayed by the recent passage of tit–for–tat human rights sanctions, and attempt to put the administration's "reset" of relations with the Kremlin back on track. The White House has already suggested disarmament, Iran, North Korea and Syria as the main topics for the talks. |
| Western Military Intervention Is the Answer |
| By James S. Robbins, The New York Times, April 29, 2013 |
The civil war in Syria is over two years old with no end in sight. As matters stand, the future holds either continued bloody stalemate or a successor regime dominated by anti-Western radicals. The time has come to force a more favorable decision. |
| Overlooked Middle East Crises |
| By Ilan Berman, The Washington Times, April 23, 2013 |
These days, American policy toward the Middle East tends to be dominated by two regional crises. |
| What Are The Roots Of Tsarnaev's Murder Spree? |
| By James S. Robbins, USA Today, April 21, 2013 |
The apprehension of Dzhokhar Tsarnaev ends a five day reign of terror in the Boston area. Taking him alive allows authorities the opportunity to find answers to critical questions surrounding the deadly April 15 Boston marathon bombing. Most important of this is, why did Dzhokhar and his brother Tamarlan allegedly do it? |
| Stakes Too High To Ignore Democracy's Retreat |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, International Business Tribune, April 18, 2013 |
Western thinking about freedom and democracy is marked by a set of optimistic assertions, which include the following: |
| The Dangers Of Neglecting Central Asia |
| By Eric Hannis, U.S. News & World Report, April 16, 2013 |
Secretary of State John Kerry made news recently by referring to the venue of the latest nuclear talks with Iran as the fictional country of "Kyrzakhstan." That off-the-cuff comment was a telling indicator of the general lack of concern for Central Asia that prevails in official Washington. |
| Tehran Turns Up The Heat (On Azerbaijan) |
| By Ilan Berman, Forbes.com, April 10, 2013 |
With international pressure over its nuclear program mounting, and the recent collapse of its latest round of negotiations with the West, this might seem like a strange time for Iran to pick a fight with its neighbors. Yet on at least one front, that is exactly what it appears to be doing. Recent days have seen a marked downturn in the already-troubled relationship between the Islamic Republic and Azerbaijan, its neighbor to the northwest. |
| The Cyprus-Crisis Culture Clash |
| By E. Wayne Merry, The National Interest, April 8, 2013 |
On the surface, the Cyprus crisis was about money, but actually it was the result of conflicting political cultures: European, Greek Cypriot and Russian. The fissures exposed during the March 2013 crisis will leave a legacy of mistrust and enmity far beyond the eastern Mediterranean island that staged the drama. The underlying problem was that Europe had accepted a non-European entity (Cyprus) into its institutions and then failed to enforce upon it Europe’s standards of financial governance. Russian money became fuel for the catastrophe, but was not itself the cause. Money laundering and bank insolvency are both deplorable but are not the same thing. |
| China and Pakistan's Nuclear Collusion |
| By Jeff M. Smith, Wall Street Journal, April 3, 2013 |
Last week the Chinese Foreign Ministry all but confirmed that it plans to sell its longtime ally Pakistan a new 1,000-megawatt nuclear reactor. The deal, reportedly signed in February, is a cause for concern in Washington. Though nominally a U.S. ally, Pakistan already has the world's fastest-growing nuclear-weapons arsenal and one of the world's worst nuclear-proliferation records. It is a country perpetually under threat from religious fanaticism, political instability and economic mismanagement. |
| Rules of Engagement, the Cybercrime Edition |
| By Richard Harrison and Emily Greenfield, U.S. News & World Report, April 2, 2013 |
Late last month, computers in Seoul became the latest victims of the growing number of cyber-intrusions now taking place worldwide. Approximately 32,000 computers belonging to South Korean banks and broadcasting stations were shut down by an unknown perpetrator, strongly suspected to be the notoriously unpredictable Stalinist regime in North Korea. |
| Is there an “Obama Doctrine”? |
| By Lamont Colucci, The Washington Times, April 2, 2013 |
Years from now, historians may well write that the decline or upswing in the American empire of liberty occurred during the Obama presidency. They will either write that the Obama administration’s self-fulfilling prophecy and rhetoric of decline was overcome by the overwhelming greatness of the United States or that the ultimate downfall was caused by the conditions created by this White House. |
| Soothing words in Israel won't pull peace from Mideast flames |
| By Lawrence J. Haas, McLatchy News Service, March 28, 2013 |
"Put yourself in their shoes," President Obama said of the Palestinians, imploring his Israeli audience in Jerusalem to work for peace. "Look at the world through their eyes. |
| Heavyweights Go Toe-to-Toe in Cyprus |
| By E. Wayne Merry, U.S. News & World Report, March 26, 2013 |
The financial crisis in Cyprus is, among other things, a stress test in relations between Europe and Russia. Thus far, neither has performed very well. |
| Obama's Middle East Policy In Tatters |
| By James Robbins, USA Today, March 21, 2013 |
President Obama's first journey to Israel as president comes amid earth-shattering change in Middle East, much of it for the worse. The Arab Spring, which once raised hopes of freedom and dignity, has diverged onto the dark path of Islamist authoritarian rule. In Syria, tens of thousands of people have died in a bitter civil war that might have recently seen its first use of chemical weapons. And Iran continues its march toward nuclear weapons capability, heedless of international condemnation. Obama's effort to seek peace between Palestinians and Israelis is in tatters. |
| Hugo Chavez's Death Is a Blow to Iran |
| By Ilan Berman, U.S. News & World Report, March 12, 2013 |
The passing of Hugo Chavez last week shouldn't have come as much of a surprise to most observers. The death watch for the long serving Venezuelan strongman had been in effect since at least mid-2011, when he confirmed longstanding rumors by publicly announcing that he was being treated for an aggressive form of cancer. |
| Chavez Failed Venezuela |
| By James Robbins, USA Today, March 6, 2013 |
Late Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez proved that one person can make a huge difference. In his case, it was almost universally negative. |
| Shift Tactics In Iran Negotiations |
| By Ilan Berman, USA Today, February 28, 2013 |
Suddenly, it's springtime for diplomacy with Iran once again. After a year that saw a dramatic escalation of economic pressure against the Islamic Republic, the Obama administration and its allies are now once again talking to Tehran. Yesterday, negotiations concluded in Almaty, Kazakhstan on the latest round of multilateral diplomacy aimed at bringing Iran's nuclear ambitions to heel. Additional talks are now set for April, to be held once again in Kazakhstan. |
| Does Iran Already Have The Bomb? |
| By James Robbins, USA Today, February 27, 2013 |
During Secretary of State John Kerry's listening tour of the Middle East, one troubling regional issue might go unspoken: the possibility that Iran already has nuclear weapons capability. |
| Hillary Clinton's Unfinished Business at the Broadcasting Board of Governors |
| By Robert Schadler, U.S. News & World Report, February 26, 2013 |
Since her departure from Foggy Bottom on February 1, Hillary Clinton's tenure as secretary of state has received extensive attention—and accolades—from the press. Most assessments have focused on Ms. Clinton's diligence as America's top diplomat, as well as her extensive travel (a total of 956,733 miles in 401 days in visits to 112 countries). |
| U.S. Universities Must Invest in China Studies |
| By Joshua Eisenman, U.S. News & World Report, February 19, 2013 |
On December 14, Richard Baum, distinguished professor of political science at UCLA, renowned expert on Chinese politics, and adviser to presidents, died in Los Angeles. He was among the foremost in an unparalleled generation of Sinologists that was trained during the Mao Era and went on to inform countless Americans about China and its strategic intentions. Ironically, however, even as his contribution to the study of Chinese politics is eulogized around the world, the emphasis on area studies at the American universities that created Professor Baum and his cohort has withered. Today, many of America's best young Sinologists are forgoing academia and instead choosing more lucrative careers in government or the private sector—working for select audiences on specific topics. |
| Cutting The Iran-China Connection |
| By Ilan Berman, The American, February 14, 2013 |
Just what will it take to bring Iran’s nuclear ambitions to heel? The past year has seen a dramatic expansion of economic pressure against the Iranian regime by the United States and Europe, all with a single-minded purpose: to ratchet up the costs to Iran of its stubborn atomic endeavor. |
| Rogue Nations Shrug Off Obama's Threats |
| By James S. Robbins, USA Today, February 13, 2013 |
In his State of the Union Address, President Obama pledged that "America will continue to lead the effort to prevent the spread of the world's most dangerous weapons." |
| With North Korea's Nuclear Test, U.S. Must Prepare For The Worst |
| By Peter Huessy, U.S. News & World Report, February 13, 2013 |
When the South Korean government collected and analyzed the debris from North Korea's mid-December launch of a rocket into space, it made two new—and disturbing—discoveries. The first was that, while the rocket technology used by Pyongyang was partly Chinese in origin, it appeared to have been largely "home grown." The second was that the range of the rocket fired by the North was greater than originally believed, and perhaps as much as 6,000 miles in distance. |
| Iran Electoral Power Play Shows How Fragile Regime Actually Is |
| By Ilan Berman, U.S. News & World Report, February 5, 2013 |
Iran's presidential election may still be some four months away, but the political machinations have already begun. Last week, Iran's Council of Guardians, the powerful governmental oversight body tasked with interpreting the country's constitution, passed a new law imposing additional curbs on the electoral process within the Islamic Republic—and adding a new layer of bureaucracy to its already-convoluted political process. |
| China Tests The Limits Of The Law Of The Sea |
| By Ilan Berman, The Washington Times, February 4, 2013 |
In late January, the government of the Philippines served official notice that it plans to bring China before an arbitral tribunal over the latter's persistent violation of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea -- the multilateral treaty that serves as the touchstone for much of the world's behavior on the high seas. The move garnered only limited media coverage, but it provides a telling snapshot of the struggle that is now under way for the shape of Asia. |
| Another Regional War in the Wings |
| By E. Wayne Merry, The National Interest, January 31, 2013 |
In the conflict zone stretching from Syria to Afghanistan lies another war waiting to re-emerge: Nagorno-Karabakh. This dispute is likely to occupy President Obama’s new foreign-policy team whether they want it or not. |
| Assessing Iran's Asia Pivot |
| By Ilan Berman, STRATAGEM, January 30, 2013 |
A significant shift is underway in U.S. defense posture. Over the past year, the Obama administration has carried out a public pivot in strategic focus toward the Asia Pacific theater. The reorientation has been driven in large part by concerns over China’s “peaceful” (or not so peaceful) rise to regional prominence—and by an effort to exploit the opportunities that have been created by it. Widespread regional unease over China’s growing footprint among Asian countries has paved the way for stronger relationships between Asia and the United States, as well as a growing willingness to partner with Washington on matters of regional security and politics. |
| Time for U.S. forces to intervene in Mali: Opposing view |
| By James S. Robbins, USA Today, January 23, 2013 |
With U.S. troops out of Iraq and leaving Afghanistan, the last thing the American people want to hear about is the potential for another war. But the growing conflict in Mali is not a new war; it is another front in the same struggle against violent extremism America has been waging since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks. |
| The End of the War on Terrorism? Al Qaeda Hasn't Gotten the Memo |
| By James S. Robbins, U.S. News & World Report, January 22, 2013 |
Until recently, most Americans had never heard of the west African country of Mali. They may have heard of the Malian city of Timbuktu, but even then only as a byword used to describe the middle of nowhere. However, an Islamist insurgency has thrust Mali into the forefront of the national security debate, and highlighted the continuing complexities of the struggle against violent extremism. |
| The Cost Of Misunderstanding Iran |
| By Ilan Berman, The Journal of International Security Affairs, January 17, 2013 |
Today, the United States confronts no shortage of strategic challenges in the Middle East. Initial optimism about democratic change among the countries of the “Arab Spring” has given way to deep apprehension over the ascendance of Islamist forces in places like Egypt and Libya. The post-Saddam government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki remains fragile and unstable, riven by sectarian divisions and propelled by divisive power politics. And al-Qaeda, although down in the wake of the May 2011 killing of Osama bin Laden, is decidedly not out, as frequent bombings in Iraq and mounting unrest in Yemen underscore. |
| Chuck Hagel's Troubling 'Global Zero' Nuclear Arms Stance |
| By Peter Huessy, U.S. News & World Report, January 15, 2013 |
During the tenure of the Bush administration, the United States entered into numerous agreements with many countries, including our Cold War adversary Russia, to deal with the growing danger of nuclear terrorism. |
| The Brotherhood's Agenda, Cairo's Catastrophe |
| By Ilan Berman, Forbes.com, January 14, 2013 |
It has been heralded as a humanitarian gesture and a sign of Arab leadership, but Qatar’s decision last week to double its $2.5 billion aid package to Egypt is also a telling indicator of the true economic state of affairs in post-revolutionary Egypt. |
| Benghazi Shows State Department Must Rethink Public Diplomacy |
| By Robert Schadler, U.S News & World Report, January 8, 2013 |
Buried deep in the report of the Accountability Review Board convened by outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to examine the tragic events that took place this fall in Benghazi, Libya is the answer to why the U.S. ambassador was there in the first place. Ambassador Christopher Stevens, who lost his life in Benghazi, was there "to open an American Corner at a local school and to reconnect with local contacts." Apparently, a friendly local Libyan was opening a school to teach English with an "American Corner" as part of that effort. The ambassador thought it so important that he wanted to participate personally in its opening. It is, thus, not an exaggeration to say that Ambassador Stephens died in the pursuit of "public diplomacy." |
| SYMPOSIUM: The New Cold War? |
| By Ilan Berman, International Economy, December 28, 2012 |
In late October, speaking at the Intrepid Museum in New York, U.S. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta delivered a stark warning. The United States, Panetta said, could soon face a mass disruption event of catastrophic proportions, a "cyber Pearl Harbor" of sorts. |
