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Iran Democracy Monitor No.
69, March 12, 2008
American Foreign Policy Council, Washington, DC
Editor:
Ilan Berman
FEELING THE PETROLEUM PINCH
Some nine months after imposing a strict domestic
gasoline rationing scheme in an effort to limit its economic
vulnerability, worries over internal stability are leading
the Iranian government to ease the energy restrictions.
According to Iran's Economy Minister, Davoud Danesh-Jafari,
the Islamic Republic has "no choice" but to offer Iranian
drivers extra gasoline, over and above the amount officially
permitted under rationing - even though such supplies are
expected to lead to higher inflation. The new plan will
allow Iranians to purchase additional fuel – in excess of
the 120 gallons currently permitted per month – at a higher
price of between 5,000 and 7,000 rials per gallon.
The reasons for the effort appear to have everything to do
with official efforts to curb the flourishing black market
in petroleum that has sprung up within the Islamic Republic.
"Many of our people, if they are in need of fuel, and they
have no access to it, they are willing to get it at a higher
price from others," Danesh-Jafari has explained. (Reuters,
February 23, 2008)
AHMADINEJAD’S IRAQ MISSION
On March 1st, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
kicked off a high-profile two-day state visit to neighboring
Iraq. The trip – the first ever by an Iranian president –
was fraught with symbolism, intended to highlight the
growing “brotherly” relations between the onetime regional
rivals, as well as to dilute American influence within the
former Ba’athist state.
But was the Iranian president’s mission of political
influence successful? At least some observers are skeptical.
More than anything else, Ahmadinejad’s visit “showed the
limits of Iranian influence in the newly liberated country,”
writes veteran regime watcher Amir Taheri in the New York
Post. “Weeks of hard work by Iranian emissaries and
pro-Iran elements in Iraq were supposed to ensure massive
crowds thronging the streets of Baghdad and throwing flowers
on the path of the visiting Iranian leader. Instead, no more
than a handful of Iraqis turned up for the occasion...
[while] much larger crowds gathered to protest Ahmadinejad's
visit. In the Adhamiya district of Baghdad, several thousand
poured into the streets with cries of ‘Iranian aggressor, go
home!’" (Reuters,
February 28, 2008;
New York Post, March 8, 2008)
GROWING REPRESSION WITHIN THE ISLAMIC REPUBLIC
Over the past year, human rights conditions within
the Islamic Republic have gone from bad to worse, according
to a new survey by the U.S. Department of State. The study,
included in the State Department's just-released Country
Reports on Human Rights Practices 2007, assesses that in
2007 the Iranian government's "poor human rights record
worsened, and it continued to commit numerous, serious
abuses." These included "unjust executions after unfair
trials," as well as "politically motivated abductions;
torture and severe officially-sanctioned punishments,
including death by stoning; amputation; flogging; and
excessive use of force against and imprisonment of
demonstrators."
The report also notes widespread instances of arbitrary
arrest and detention targeting political prisoners and
women's rights activists. The Iranian government, the report
concludes, has "severely restricted civil liberties,
including freedoms of speech, press, assembly, association,
movement, and privacy." Also notable, coming just days
before Iran's parliamentary elections, is the study's
conclusion that the regime in Tehran has "severely limited
citizens' right to change their government peacefully
through free and fair elections." (U.S.
Department of State, March 12, 2008)
AN ELECTION BLACKOUT
Iran’s government is tightening its grip on the
World-Wide Web ahead of the country’s parliamentary polls,
scheduled for March 14th. Regime officials have disclosed
that private Internet access may be blocked for Iranians
during the elections. The proposed ban appears to be at
least in part a social control measure. "Shutting down the
Internet service will depend on security plans and on the
Ministry of Telecommunication," the Etemad-e Melli
newspaper cites Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi as
saying. (International
Herald Tribune, March 3, 2008)
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