Global Islamism Monitor No. 112

AFTER CROCUS, A RUSSIAN CLAMPDOWN
On March 22nd, militants affiliated with the Islamic State's Afghan franchise, commonly known as ISIS-K, opened fire on concert-goers at Moscow's Crocus Hall, killing nearly 150 people and setting the popular venue ablaze. The Russian government's response paid little attention to the Islamic State's subsequent claim of responsibility, however, instead attempting to pin the blame for the incident on Ukraine, at least indirectly. Kremlin officials were also silent about prior warnings they had received from the United States about potential Islamic militant activity.

Nevertheless, behind the scenes, Russia's government – which years ago claimed victory of sorts against Islamic militancy within its own borders – has ramped up its domestic counter-terrorism operations. In early April, Russian special forces descended on Nalchik, the capital of the restive North Caucasus republic of Kabardino-Balkaria, carrying out an operation that left two militants dead. The men were suspected of planning to carry out terrorist attacks in multiple locales in Russia, although officials have not divulged which international terrorist organization they belonged to. (Reuters, April 11, 2024; Euronews, April 11, 2024)

WASHINGTON, BAGHDAD DIFFER ON ISIS DANGER
Is the Islamic State a thing of the past? The Iraqi government seems to think so. During his recent visit to Washington, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani made the case that the threat from the terror group had receded, and that therefore the relationship between Baghdad and Washington needs to change. "ISIS is not a threat now to Iraq and most of its members are now hiding in the mountains in caves in the Sahara Desert, and our security forces continue to track them down," al-Sudani told reporters while in DC. That state of affairs, he contended, provides a basis for his government to "reevaluate the schedule of ending or tapering out the mission" – i.e., U.S. military involvement in Iraq.

The White House, however, is striking a decidedly more cautious note. According to State Department officials, "ISIS continues to pose a real threat, although diminished, in Iraq and the wider region." As a result, the Biden administration currently does not share al-Sudani's conviction that the U.S.-led coalition – which is made up of some 2,500 American servicemen and hundreds of others from allied countries – needs to be wound down in the immediate future. Other American experts and policymakers concur, warning that ISIS retains the ability to reconstitute its strength in Iraq quickly absent a countervailing U.S. military presence there. (Politico, April 18, 2024)

RETHINKING COUNTERTERRORISM IN AFRICA
The African continent has been plagued by rampant Islamic extremism for years, and the threat is growing. According to UN Deputy Secretary-General Amina Mohammed, the Sahel region accounted for half the deaths caused by terrorism globally last year. The causes are attributable to weak governance, rampant lawlessness and the proliferation of small arms and illicit commerce – factors that regional leaders say cumulatively necessitate a rethink of the prevailing approach to counterterrorism that has been adopted by local governments. At a recent security summit in Nigeria, African leaders highlighted the inadequacy of existing institutions and systems to cope with the growing threat. They noted the need for increased funding, as well as new initiatives designed "to halt the proliferation of small arms and weapons." In light of the recent cessation of France's counterterrorism mission on the continent, they also highlighted the need for a regional standby force to carry out counterterrorism operations. (Reuters, April 23, 2024)

THE IRANIAN HAND BEHIND HAMAS TERROR
On October 7th, Palestinian extremist group Hamas carried out the largest slaughter of Jews since the Holocaust when it launched a campaign of terror targeting civilian communities and soft targets in southern Israel. From the start, analysts and experts have pointed to a connection with the Islamic Republic of Iran – which has provided extensive financial and material support to the group in recent years. Just how much has been detailed in a recent expose by the Times of London, and it points to backing even more significant than previously understood. The report, citing secret internal communications uncovered during the current Gaza war, outlines that the Iranian government provided Hamas at least $222 million between 2014 and 2020. The money is said to have been transferred in cash from Iran to Lebanon, and subsequently funneled into Gaza through intermediaries and alternative financial mechanisms, such as cryptocurrency. (Iran International, April 12, 2024)